Tag Archives: race

Uncivil War

TW: “suicide” as a metaphor

So the federal government shutdown is now more than a week old, with seemingly no end in sight, and honestly, why should we expect there to be any such thing? As Ryan Lizza explained with liberal references to extremist Republicans as “suicidal” in the New York Times:

As with Meadows [the House member who popularized the idea of a shutdown], the other [pro-shutdown]-caucus members live in places where the national election results seem like an anomaly. Obama defeated Romney by four points nationally. But in the eighty suicide-caucus districts, Obama lost to Romney by an average of twenty-three points. The Republican members themselves did even better. In these eighty districts, the average margin of victory for the Republican candidate was thirty-four points.

In short, these eighty members represent an America where the population is getting whiter, where there are few major cities, where Obama lost the last election in a landslide, and where the Republican Party is becoming more dominant and more popular. Meanwhile, in national politics, each of these trends is actually reversed.

Lizza points to a less metaphorically troubling article but more condescending one by Charlie Cook at the National Journal, where he detailed the situation:

Between 2000 and 2010, the non-Hispanic white share of the population fell from 69 percent to 64 percent, closely tracking the 5-point drop in the white share of the electorate measured by exit polls between 2004 and 2012. But after the post-census redistricting and the 2012 elections, the non-Hispanic white share of the average Republican House district jumped from 73 percent to 75 percent, and the average Democratic House district declined from 52 percent white to 51 percent white. In other words, while the country continues to grow more racially diverse, the average Republican district continues to get even whiter.

As Congress has become more polarized along party lines, it’s become more racially polarized, too. In 2000, House Republicans represented 59 percent of all white U.S. residents and 40 percent of all nonwhite residents. But today, they represent 63 percent of all whites and just 38 percent of all nonwhites. In 2012 alone, Republicans lost 11.2 million constituents to Democrats (a consequence of not only the party’s loss of a net eight House seats but also the fact GOP districts had grown faster in the previous decade and needed to shed more population during redistricting). Of the 11.2 million people Republicans no longer represent, 6.6 million, or 59 percent, are minorities.

Now, if you had to come up with a word for this, gerrymander would probably be the first off of your tongue (and it was the first off of Cook’s and Lizza’s), but examine the racial politics here for a second longer – what Republicans have essentially created a distinctive portion of the country and now feel entitled to allow its politics to dictate the entire country’s. Or should I say countries’? Is this a bit of covert secession, complete with the expectation that comparatively urban as well as racially and regionally diverse populations will kowtow to rural, White, and predominantly Southern interests?

(The Republican-catering media knows what the Zeitgeist is for that part of the country, from here. And yes, Drudge used the 2008 electoral college map in a story from 2012.)

Much like before the first US Civil War, the interests and political solutions touted by different populations have been aligned with different political parties, different classes, and even different regions. For some time now, we’ve been in a time of divergence. The shutdown is just another installation of that, and it’s just the sort of thing that can’t “run its course”, because it has so much historical and political momentum.

In a very scary sense, that’s what might have begun now more than a week ago. The most extreme Republicans have fashioned a miniature country within the US of their own likeness out of odds and ends. With more and more people of color living in this country and more and more Whites at the least being less enthusiastic about this near-exclusively White political coalition, however, they’ve had to scribble together all sorts of unusual districts to make it work, for just 80 seats in the House.

The trade off there may be a part of our saving grace, since there’s no clear center of operations for a secessionist movement to coalesce around. Still, that seems to have been replaced with battle lines drawn through 32 states instead of between them.

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The image of the country “we are becoming”

In the wake of the 2012 Presidential Election, I wrote about Paul Krugman’s explanation that that election was something of an extension and expansion on the themes in the 2008 elections. Among other indications, it was a symbol that the idea of the United States as an open and diverse society was not merely a fluke of the 2008 electoral cycle, but an increasingly integral part of the country.

Sometimes, it’s difficult to keep sight of that within what I’ve called the “unreality” of politics here. It’s difficult sometimes to remember how utterly unrepresentative much of the media and the politics in the US actually are. To that point, there’s been two major explorations of how wide that gap is in the past two weeks.

comparison of Sunday shows proportionate representation of White men - all greater than 60% aside from Up with Chris Hayes which is 41%
(The comparison of the Sunday shows’ demographics, from here.)

Media Matters recently released this chart showing how Up with Chris Hayes more accurately depicts the actual demographic reality in the United States, especially when compared to other Sunday shows. The problem of overrepresenting male and White perspectives, unfortunately, is merely one that Hayes’ show has challenged in anyway, not one that his show has actually actively resolved. It’s worth noting that while 41 percent of his guests are White men (compared to 39 percent of the overall population), only 37 percent of his guests are women. Again, this is significantly higher than other shows – but the fact that Up is an outlier, while it still so chronically underrepresents women of all races, is cause for concern.

Likewise, as I’ve pointed out before with regards to MSNBC’s coverage, people of color and women are not the only groups systemically locked out of discussions on policies and attitudes that most directly impact them. Still, in spite of its failings, this is chart fairly concisely shows just how out of touch most broadcasts are with who US residents actually are – in terms of just race and gender alone.

But what’s particularly interesting is that a large swathe of the country is moving towards pluralism on such issues even while hindered by a media that rarely allows all of those “others” to air their concerns or perspectives. Nate Silver a few days ago pointed out that aside from Republicans, the United States is rapidly becoming more accepting of marriage equality. The research he cites breaks it down in terms of both partisan identity and general political identity.

Comparison of marriage equality support since 2001 between political groupsComparison of marriage equality support since 2001 between political parties
(Click to enlarge. Pew Research shows long terms increases in support for marriage equality among different political parties and identities over the past decade, from here.)

It’s intriguing to see how support for marriage equality has been steadily gaining support for years – some of them under the notoriously prejudiced Bush Administration. Likewise, although both the increase is smaller and the results less impressive, this is something that’s even improved among Republicans and conservatives.

There’s something in actually visually seeing that fact – that some segments of the media are actually becoming more representative in terms of race and gender and that the polling shows as well that we’re growing more inclusive as a country.

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The GOP: we alienate everyone because we almost can

You may have heard some the talk recently in the US about how the blowout re-election of President Obama was due to the Republican Party alienating every voter they could, and there’s a lot to say on that issue. Election night was full of animated analysis of the gender gap, and particularly the marital dimension of it. The past few weeks, discussion of how that occurred for Black and Latin@ voters has been a common theme in political media. In more recent days, analysis of the stark movement of Asian electoral support from the Republican to Democratic Party has been the newest item of the on-going discussion.

(Various Asian voters historically favored Republicans, but the past twenty years of neo-nativist rhetoric have stunningly reversed that, making other shifts, like Bush’s gains with Latin@s look inconsequential in comparison. From here.)

The last bastion of Republicans strength outside of a narrow subculture of straight, cisgendered, White, Christian, wealthy patriarchs seems to be among the middle class, as Romney’s campaign strategist recently wrote in a Washington Post opinion piece. The facts are, however, that Romney only won the range of voters with yearly personal incomes greater than $50,000 when viewed all together. There isn’t data specific the “middle class” segment of that, however we might define it.

But of course, it comes as no great shock to note, as Paul Krugman has, that the Republicans have tried to push through a compromise on the expiration of the Bush tax cuts that would have sacrificed the current rates of many of those making between  the not-really-middle-class-anymore-right? $250,000 and a shocking $400,000 yearly, to keep the current low rates on income greater than that bracket. So, for those with income within that bracket, the message from Republicans is clear: the political demands of even the rich are irrelevant compared to those with those of the astounding wealthy.

(From Krugman’s article.)

How long will those who fit into the Republic pigeonhole in every way other than class keep voting for them? Did we just see the straw that broke the camel’s back?

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