US election updates

I’ve taken this day off to watch the races, and possibly the apocalypse.

This year has a lot of eye-catching things on the ballot, but unfortunately, a number of contests have their fates bundled together. For instance, many predictions put control of the Senate (and with that federal nominations, treaty ratification, and war declarations) in the hands of not only a motley of statewide Senate races but the presidency itself. The Vice President, acting as president pro tempore of the Senate, casts tie-breaking votes, which many predictions suggest might be vital to Clinton’s basic ability to govern.

Here’s the key races and her own per the experts (and with updates as we have them):

Race Incumbent (italicized if only party incumbent) Main Challenger PEC Calculation (x)
538 Calculation (as of 7 AM)
Outcome
Presidential Race Hillary Clinton (D) Donald Trump (R) Clinton wins (>99%), median scenario of 307 EVs to Clinton (>3%) Clinton wins (71.4%), most likely outcome of 323 EVs to Clinton (>1%) Trump electoral college win 306-232, Clinton popular vote lead estimated 1.2%
Senate Overall Republican Control (54) Democratic Minority (46) Median outcome: 50-50 (>30%) Most likely: 50-50 (16.7%) Republican Control – 51(R), 48(D)
House Overall Republican Control (247) Democratic Minority (188) Democrats lead generic ballot ~1%, Republicans maintain 239-196 lead (per Cook)             – Republican Control – 239(R), 192(D)
NH Senate Kelly Ayotte (R) Maggie Hassan (D) +1.0% lead – Hassan (D) 52.7% likely Hassan (D) Hassan (D) win
PA Senate Pat Toomey (R) Katie McGinty (D) +2.0% lead – McGinty (D)  61.7% likely McGinty (D) Toomey (R) win
IN Senate Todd Young (R) Evan Bayh (D) +1.0% lead –  Bayh (D) 68.5% likely Young (R) Young (R) win
MO Senate Roy Blunt (R)  Jason Kander (D) +1.0% lead – Blunt (R) 57.4% likely Blunt (R) Blunt (R)  win
NV Senate Catherine Cortez Masto (D) Joe Heck (R)  +2.0% lead – Masto (D) 60.0% likely Masto (D) Masto (D) win

Although not necessarily as “baked-in” to the governing process, budgets and similarly fiscal laws must originate in the House, making control of it vital in the long term.

The races I’ve chose to highlight are mostly those from this breakdown of different dynamics in the various local races. Here are the different elections, with the time their polling places close:

Race Incumbent (italicized if only party incumbent) Main Challenger Poll Closing Time RCP Call as of 7 AM Today
Outcome
VA-05 Tom Garrett (R) Jane Dittmar (D)  4 PM PST Likely Republican Garrett (R) win
KS-03 Kevin Yoder (R) Jay Sidie (D) 5 PM PST Leans Republican Yoder (R) win
ME-02 Bruce Poliquin (R) Emily Cain (D) 5 PM PST Toss Up Poliquin (R) win
MI-06 Fred Upton (R) Paul Clements (D) 5 PM PST Likely Republican Upton (R) win
MI-07 Tim Walberg (R) Gretchen Driskell (D) 5 PM PST Leans Republican Walberg (R) win
NH-01 Frank Guinta (R) Carol Shea Porter (D) 5 PM PST Leans Democratic Porter (D) win
PA-16 Lloyd Smucker (R) Christina Hartman (D) 5 PM PST Likely Republican Lloyd Smucker (R) win
NY-19 John Faso (R) Zephyr Teachout (D) 6 PM PST Toss Up John Faso (R) win
CA-07 Ami Bera (D) Scott Jones (R) 8 PM PST Leans Democratic (Bera [D] lead)
CA-10 Jeff Denham (R) Michael Eggman (D) 8 PM PST Leans Republican Denham (R) win
CA-24 Salud Carbajal (D) Justin Fareed (R) 8 PM PST Leans Democratic Carbajal (D) win
CA-25 Stephen Knight (R) Bryan Caforio (D) 8 PM PST Toss Up Knight (R) win
CA-49 Darryl Issa (R) Douglas Applegate (D) 8 PM PST Toss Up (Issa [R] lead)

As always, there are also the various state propositions and similar public vote referenda that keep things truly interesting. Here’s a choice selection:

Ballot Initiative Effect
Outcome
California Proposition 58 Authorizes bilingual education options (more) Passed
Florida Amendment 1 Solar energy producers’ rights, obligations (more) Rejected
Maine Question 5 Ranked voting for state and federal elections (more) Passed

Check back in for updates as the day goes on!

8:35 – Please vote! You can find your polling place here. If you don’t trust that, quite literally, you can google it! Google, helpfully, provides not just the address of the closest polling place, but also a decent breakdown of several of the races you can vote for based off of where you live, as well as what you need (if anything) to prove eligibility.

9:54 – Today in Schadenfreude: Eric Trump invalidated his own ballot by snapping a picture of it filled out with a vote for his father. Don’t make the same mistake, know the laws in your state or district!

12:53 – I voted! And then treated myself.

on every corner.jpg

1:10 – Pew Research put together this neat graphic – note that the number of possible Latin@ voters has grown significantly in recent years even as actual votes cast has lagged. With many people anecdotally observing that there’s been a large increase in Latin@ turnout, it may be worth keeping an eye out for another version of this chart, to see how voting patterns evolve further for this group.

1:20 – Clare Malone mentioned in the 538 livecast that James O’Keefe, of heavily edited viral video fame, is apparently targeting efforts to drive voters to the polls in Philadelphia. Just as a reminder, it is entirely legal to drive someone else to their polling place, and in fact there are several organizations that you can contact to request a ride, like this one!

1:30 – Let’s talk electoral college maps. Here are Nate Silver’s and Sam Wang’s, respectively:

2016-11-08_07472016-11-08_0748

Who’s going to take odds on whether they’ll come to blows over North Carolina? Neither of them can!

2:27 – Yikes! There’s stories about voter intimidation cropping up all over the place – from Hijab-wearing women in Michigan being seemingly deliberately misdirected to  other polling sites to Trump supporters blocking polling places in Florida.

3:05 – Harry Enten makes an interesting point looking at exit polling by race. In Florida, in the broad sense, voting by people of color is up actually from 2012. In North Carolina, however, voting among Black people appears to have slightly declined. Are other demographics that are trending towards Democrats (including another groups of people of color) enough to secure the state for Clinton?

3:07 – Polls are now closed in [parts of] Indiana and Kentucky. We’ll see about results as they come in.

3:25 – We’re starting to see returns on Indiana’s senate race. Too early for much, but it’s started!

3:34 – Comparing some of the presidential returns we’re seeing, Young, the Republican candidate for Senate in Indiana, may be trailing Trump. If that’s the case, Democrats might carry the Senate with that seat, even while Republicans carry it in the presidential contest.

3:35 – See, Harry Enten agrees with me! He’s a little quick to think this is ticket splitting… I’m curious whether this couldn’t be that there’s a chunk of Trump voters who are only Trump voters.

3:57 – A nice smattering of states will close their polls momentarily: Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, most of Florida, and the rest of Indiana and Kentucky.

4:17 – North Carolina is extending the hours their polls will be open, pushing them back from the half hour.

4:18 – Sorry for a paucity of updates! Indiana’s Senate race will likely be the first of the down ballot races called, but that’s also a ways out.

4:21 – As far as the presidency goes, only a few states have been decisively called – Kentucky and Indiana for Trump and Vermont for Clinton. No surprises there.

4:38 – We’re starting to see significant results for VA-05, and it’s not looking good for the Democrats. This isn’t the canary in the coalmine, however. What that district tested was whether Republicans could unified a the close of the campaign. It looks like that question may have been answered – but we’ll see.

5:22 – As anticipated, the Republican candidate, Tom Garrett, has held VA-05 for the Republicans. It’s increasingly looking likely that Todd Young will do the same for the party in Indiana.

5:25 – On cue, some networks have begun calling the Indiana Senate seat for Young!

5:52 – Unfortunately a number of the more local races have been tight, so there’s not been much to call before the huge set of states close their polls at the top of the hour. That will bring in a lot of noise, but most it only being confirmation of things we already expected.

5:54 – Before the rushes in, one thing of note is that Republicans appear to be favored for North Carolina’s Senate seat, but Democrats are performing very well in New Hampshire and Missouri Senate races.

6:36 – A lot of things are really close. Really close.

6:58 – What is becoming clear is that a lot of later precinct returns, from say a rush on in person voting in urban areas, will show up later in the night. Those are the last votes possible to count.

8:26 -…. r e a l l y     c l o s e

9:19 – I feel like it’s a bit of a cop out to describe this as close once again, but neither party has quite secured majorities in either the House or the Senate. Neither Clinton nor Trump has secured enough electoral votes to win the presidency. It’s just really close in every major competition for governmental control.

9:26 – Lo and behold, we now have a House majority – for Republicans as predicted and expected.

11:23 – I keep almost announcing a Trump victory in the presidency and seeing various networks not quite declaring it. It’s the favored outcome by far, and the Senate moreover has been decisively captured by Republicans. After years of divided government – total party control has been achieved.

11:45 – Clinton has conceded and that’s it, the election of an undivided Republican government.

12:08 – It appears at least one member of the crowd watching Trump’s acceptance speech yelled out “Kill Obama”.

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