Elections Results – 2012

This post will be updated with results as they become available. Textual explanations of new results will be added to the bottom of the post with a (PST) time-stamp for clarity. More nebulous news (read: widely reported rumors) will probably appear first on my twitter, so check that out if you prefer less certain but more constant commentary. Below are the results that I’ve seen reliably reported. These highlighted races were drawn from those mentioned here.

The Electoral College

Obama’s Electors  Romney’s Electors  Contested Electors 
303 206 29

Popular Vote Candidate Races

Race Incumbent (or prior party) Main Challenger RCP Average 538 Calculation Outcome
Presidential Race Barack Obama (D) Mitt Romney (R) Obama +0.7 Obama 92% Obama Win
IN Senate Richard Mourdock (R) Joe Donnelly (D)           – Donnelly 67.7% Donnelly Win
MA Senate Scott Brown (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Warren +3.5 Warren 93.6% Warren Win
MO Senate Claire McCaskill (D) Todd Akin (R) McCaskill +6.3 McCaskill 88.3% McCaskill Win
NE Senate Bob Kerrey (D) Deb Fischer (R)           – Fischer 99.1% Fischer Win
OH Senate Sherrod Brown (D) Josh Mandel (R) Brown +5.0 Brown 96.5% Brown Win
House CA-7 Dan Lungren (R) Ami Bera (D)           –             – Bera Win
House CA-10 Jeff Denham (R) José Hérnandez (D)           –             – Denham Win
House CA-41 John Tavaglione (R) Mark Takano (D)           –             – Takano Win
House PA-8 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) Kathy Boockvar (D)           –             – Fitzpatrick Win
House TN-4 Scott DesJarlais (R) Eric Stewart (D)           –             – DesJarlais Win
House TX-20 Joaquín Castro (D) David Rosa (R)           –             – Castro Win
House TX-21 Lamar Smith (R) Candace Duval (D)           –             – Smith Win

Noteworthy State Propositions

State  Initiative  Intent Outcome
CA 32 Restricts labor unions’ political activities Rejected
CA 37 Requires labeling of genetically modified food Rejected
MD 6 Recognizes same-sex marriages Passed
ME 1 Recognizes same-sex marriages Passed
MN 1 Disallows state recognition of same-sex marriages Rejected
WA 74 Recognizes same-sex marriages Passed

4:00 – It’s quiet, too quiet. Here’s a quick run down of electoral college predictions:

(Nate Silver)


(Sam Wang)

(My visualization of Michael Barone’s Predictions)

5:20 – Huffington Post has an awesomely informative tabulation of electoral totals in the Presidential race across entire states.

5:47 – A majority of Floridan precincts are in and Obama’s maintaining his lead.

6:01 – I’m updating the electoral vote count based on whether the networks are unanimous, just by the way.

6:10 – TN-4 is leaning Republican, but the Senate races in Massachusetts, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri are all leaning Democratic.

6:40 – Politico is calling the Ohio Senate for Sherrod Brown.

6:45 – Politico also called TX-20 for Joaquín Castro and TX-21 for Lamar Smith. MSNBC has called the Massachusetts Senate seat for Elizabeth Warren.

6:55 – Half of the electoral votes have now been called unanimously by the New York Times’ group of sources.

7:04 – MSNBC and Politico are calling the Indiana Senate seat for Joe Donnelly (D).

7:19 – MSNBC and Politico are both calling the Massachusetts Senate seat for Elizabeth Warren (D).

7:26 – Politico is reporting that Maryland looks poised to legalize same-sex marriage. Maine isn’t looking bad either.

7:39 – Politico’s dragging their feet on calling PA-8 for Fitzpatrick and TN-4 for DesJarlais, because the night is still early. Meanwhile, Scott Brown is conceding.

7:47 – Todd Akin is conceding, so Politico should hurry up and call the Missouri Senate seat for McCaskill.

7:48 – Of course, they finally update right as I point it out.

7:53 – The electoral college calls are stalling a bit. I might start including in the totals states that have been called by all but one of the major networks (to allow for oddballs).

8:10PA-8 has now been declared for Fitzpatrick by Politico, but TN-4 is still gray.

8:26 – We’re seeing some convergence in calls now – everyone’s predicting an Obama win in the electoral college at least.

8:28 – Don’t worry, I’m not going anywhere. We’ve got so many other races to go through.

8:34 – Politico is calling the Nebraska Senate seat for Fischer.

8:41As for California, Hérnandez has a slight deficit, Takano has a slight lead, and Bera’s race hasn’t been touched yet.

9:06 – Politico’s reporting Maryland and Maine have legalized same-sex marriage by ballot initiative, making this the first time that’s happened in US history. Minnesota and Washington are close, but it looks like the former won’t ban same-sex marriage and the latter will legally recognize it. Relatedly, Colorado and Washington are currently favoring legalizing marijuana.

9:20In California, Bera and Hérnandez are slightly behind and Takano is slightly ahead. The amount of the vote that’s been counted for Bera and Takano is really small though.

10:07Politico seems to think that the Minnesota ban on recognizing same-sex marriages will likely fail and the Washington state recognition of it will pass, but narrowly.

10:30 – The California Three are all in extremely tight races right now. Bera is behind by only 70 votes.

10:37The California ballot initiatives don’t look so good. 32 is close and 37 is going down in flames.

10:38 – Same-sex marriage looks like it’s holding in Washington. Time will tell though.

11:28 – As they reach a greater percentage of the ballots in California, the races for the California Three lean more Democratic and the ballot initiative results lean more progressive. For Hérnandez and 37, however, they might still be past the point of no return.

11:43 – At long last, they’ve called Alaska and Minnesota’s non-homophobic legal system seems to have remained intact. With less than fifteen percent of the vote left to count and Minnesota’s ban losing by over 90,000 of them, I’m going to stick my neck out and call it.

12:03California Props 32 and 37 are converging, as more votes are counted. 32 was originally a very weak “no” and 37 a very emphatic one. If trends keep up, 37 might just barely squeak by, although it’s looking unlikely. 32 seems like a safe bet to fail though, as it’s only gaining further resistance.

12:19For the California Three, Bera’s razor-thin margin of a few hundred votes has remained steady if not slightly expanded and is now 712 votes. Hérnandez is still down and Takano is still up (although CA-41 has had barely more than a third of its ballots counted, unlike CA-7 and CA-10).

12:55 – Bera’s lead has climbed to 857.

1:01 – California Propositions 32 and 37 are now more or less even in “yes”/”no” votes.

1:05 – And they just crossed. GMO labeling now has greater support than union busting. Unfortunately, it’s still not enough support to legally mandate action, but there’s still almost a third of the votes to get through, and if this trend holds up…

1:09 – Politico is talking about 100% of precincts having reported totals in CA-7, but they still haven’t announced Bera as the winner in spite of having just under a 200 vote lead. Am I missing something?

7:04 – Here’s the results as of this morning. Bera still hasn’t been called, but if they’re doing recounts, he has remained in the lead somehow.

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